Barry M. Farr, MD, MSC; Andrew J. Sloman, MD; Michael J. Fisch, MD
▪Objective: To validate a previously reported discriminant rule for predicting mortality in adult patients with primary community-acquired pneumonia and to determine which factors available at hospital admission predict a fatal outcome among such patients.
▪Design: Historical cohort study.
▪Setting: University hospital.
▪Patients: Adults admitted to the hospital for community-acquired pneumonia.
▪Measurements: Using stepwise logistic regression, we analyzed prognostic factors (data available at admission and recorded in the medical record) that showed a univariate association with mortality. The predictive values of three discriminant rules were measured to validate the results of a previous study.
▪Main Results: Of 245 patients, 20 (8.2%) died. Of 42 prognostic factors identified in previous studies, 8 were associated with mortality, but only a respiratory rate of 30/min or more, a diastolic blood pressure of 60 mm Hg or less, and a blood urea nitrogen of more than 7 mmol/L remained predictive in the multivariate analysis. A discriminant rule composed of these three variables was 70% sensitive and 84% specific in predicting mortality, yielding an overall accuracy of 82%.
▪Conclusion: Tachypnea, diastolic hypotension, and an elevated blood urea nitrogen were independently associated with death from pneumonia in our study, confirming the value of a previously reported discriminant rule from the British Thoracic Society. This rule may be useful in triage decisions because it identifies high-risk patients who may benefit from special medical attention.
Barry M. Farr, Andrew J. Sloman, Michael J. Fisch. Predicting Death in Patients Hospitalized for Community-acquired Pneumonia. Ann Intern Med. 1991;115:428–436. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-115-6-428
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Published: Ann Intern Med. 1991;115(6):428-436.
Infectious Disease, Pneumonia, Pulmonary/Critical Care.
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Print ISSN: 0003-4819 | Online ISSN: 1539-3704
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