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Letters |16 February 2010

Prediction Rules Must Be Developed According to Methodological Guidelines

Kristel J.M. Janssen, PhD; Karel G.M. Moons, PhD; Frank E. Harrell Jr., PhD

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Author, Article, and Disclosure Information
Potential Conflicts of Interest: None disclosed.
  • From University of Utrecht, 3508 Utrecht, the Netherlands; and Vanderbilt University Medical School, Nashville, TN 37232.
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Potential Conflicts of Interest: None disclosed.
TO THE EDITOR:
We read with interest the article by Chan and colleagues (1). They described development of a prediction rule that could be used for pretest probability assessment in pregnant women with suspected deep venous thrombosis (DVT). Prediction rules are valuable tools in daily clinical practice because they provide absolute risks for individual patients, and these risks can be used to determine treatment choices or further diagnostic work-up. However, before a prediction rule can be used safely in daily clinical practice, the methodological soundness of the development steps needs to be assured. Chan and colleagues made some methodological choices that we disagree with.
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Janssen KJ, Moons KG, Harrell FE. Prediction Rules Must Be Developed According to Methodological Guidelines. Ann Intern Med. ;152:263. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-152-4-201002160-00014

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Published: Ann Intern Med. 2010;152(4):263.

DOI: 10.7326/0003-4819-152-4-201002160-00014

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Print ISSN: 0003-4819 | Online ISSN: 1539-3704

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