Sungsub Choi, PhD; Stephen Lagakos, PhD; Robert Schooley, MD
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Choi S, Lagakos S, Schooley R. CD4 Counts as Surrogate Markers for Progression to AIDS. Ann Intern Med. 1994;120:87-88. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-120-1-199401010-00020
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Published: Ann Intern Med. 1994;120(1):87-88.
Dr. Nightingale suggests the logarithm of the CD4 count is a good predictor of 1-year survival. Similarly, we found that CD4 count—either baseline or current value—was highly prognostic for progression to AIDS. This issue, however, does not address the value of the CD4 count as a surrogate marker for disease progression. In the latter, the question is essentially whether a patient whose CD4 count is elevated by therapeutic intervention will have a corresponding reduction in risk equalling that of an untreated patient with a similar post-treatment CD4 count. Our data indicated that the actual reduction in risk exceeded that explainable by the increased CD4 count; that is, a person whose CD4 count was elevated by zidovudine had a lower risk than did a placebo recipient with the same post-treatment CD4 count.
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