Background: Although recent guidelines call for expanded routine screening for HIV, resources for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited, and all eligible persons are not currently receiving treatment.
Objective: To evaluate the effects on the U.S. HIV epidemic of expanded ART, HIV screening, or interventions to reduce risk behavior.
Design: Dynamic mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression and cost-effectiveness analysis.
Data Sources: Published literature.
Target Population: High-risk (injection drug users and men who have sex with men) and low-risk persons aged 15 to 64 years in the United States.
Time Horizon: Twenty years and lifetime (costs and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]).
Intervention: Expanded HIV screening and counseling, treatment with ART, or both.
Outcome Measures: New HIV infections, discounted costs and QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.
Results of Base-Case Analysis: One-time HIV screening of low-risk persons coupled with annual screening of high-risk persons could prevent 6.7% of a projected 1.23 million new infections and cost $22 382 per QALY gained, assuming a 20% reduction in sexual activity after screening. Expanding ART utilization to 75% of eligible persons prevents 10.3% of infections and costs $20 300 per QALY gained. A combination strategy prevents 17.3% of infections and costs $21 580 per QALY gained.
Results of Sensitivity Analysis: With no reduction in sexual activity, expanded screening prevents 3.7% of infections. Earlier ART initiation when a CD4 count is greater than 0.350 × 109 cells/L prevents 20% to 28% of infections. Additional efforts to halve high-risk behavior could reduce infections by 65%.
Limitation: The model of disease progression and treatment was simplified, and acute HIV screening was excluded.
Conclusion: Expanding HIV screening and treatment simultaneously offers the greatest health benefit and is cost-effective. However, even substantial expansion of HIV screening and treatment programs is not sufficient to markedly reduce the U.S. HIV epidemic without substantial reductions in risk behavior.
Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.