Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD)

Harry B. Burke

doi:10.7326/L15-5093

Letters |19 May 2015

Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD)

Harry B. Burke, MD, PhD

Article, Author, and Disclosure Information

TO THE EDITOR:

Collins and colleagues' article (1) is important because prediction is becoming an integral part of clinical medicine. I was gratified to note their statement that all predictions must be time-denominated (2). The authors suggest that there are only 2 types of predictions, diagnostic and prognostic, and subsume risk predictions within diagnostic predictions. I have suggested that risk is a third type of prediction (3).

Risk and diagnostic predictions differ in their targets, degrees of predictive accuracy, and time intervals. In diagnostic predictions, we wish to predict whether a person has detectable disease, the disease's time interval is instantaneous, and the prediction must be nearly 100% accurate. In risk predictions, we wish to predict the probability that a person will have detectable disease over a specified time interval and the prediction must be less than 100% accurate. These predictions differ greatly, and the distinction between risk and diagnosis is important for reporting prediction studies.

FULL TEXT

PDF

Not Available

Letters |19 May 2015

Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD)

See Also

Content

Information For

Services

Awards and Cover

Other Resources

Follow Annals On

Letters |19 May 2015

Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD)

See Also

Content

Information For

Services

Awards and Cover

Other Resources

Follow Annals On

You need a subscription to this content to use this feature.